Beating the VAR: Improving Swedish GDP Forecasts Using Error and Intercept Corrections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model for GDP, relative to a comparable vector error correction model (VECM) that recognizes that the data are characterized by co‐integration. In addition, an alternative forecast method, intercept correction, is considered for further comparison. Recursive out‐of‐sample forecasts are generated for both models and forecast techniques. The generated forecasts for each model are objectively evaluated by a selection of evaluation measures and equal accuracy tests. The result shows that the VECM consistently outperforms the VAR models. Further, intercept correction enhances the forecast accuracy when applied to the VECM, whereas there is no such indication when applied to the VAR model. For certain forecast horizons there is a significant difference in forecast ability between the intercept corrected VECM compared to the VAR model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高含钡锶离子采出水成垢趋势分析方法研究——以耿83区刘六增压站采出水为例

油田注水开发导致采出液的含水量逐年增加,部分区块采出液水体结垢导致集输管线堵塞等各种问题日益严重。根据耿83区高含钡锶离子的特点,分别采用常规水分析方法、原子吸收光谱法和等离子体原子发射光谱法测试采出水和注入水的水样离子组成成分、水样矿化度、水型等。实验结果表明,在高矿化度含多种阳离子的水溶液中,原子吸收光谱法测试结果更准确。采用原子吸收光谱法对该区块结垢特征系统分析,计算结垢理论值,得出主要为硫酸钡和硫酸锶垢型。将现场垢样通过能谱和扫描电镜分析,验证得到与水样分析出的垢体一致。该方法能准确判定出垢体和垢型,为进一步采取有效的防垢、清垢措施提供重要的依据。     

某大型格构式跨越架性能分析

主要针对一种900mm截面大型格构式的跨越架,分别在有无拉线情况下,用Midas软件进行整体稳定性及承载力性能分析.对比有拉线跨越架、无拉线跨越架的计算结果,可知加拉线能显著减小承载力极限状态下的最大水平位移、竖向支座反力,而对其它方面的影响较小.加拉线能提高跨越架结构抵抗水平荷载的能力,如提高在局部的阵风荷载、振动等作用下的安全储备.所得结果为施工提供一定参考价值.     

基于故障风险标尺的复杂装备健康状态分类模型

针对复杂装备故障呈现出多重性、相关性及模糊性的特点,本文分析了装备健康状态演化规律,利用自适应模糊神经网络、故障模式、影响及危害性分析构建故障风险标尺,实现了对复杂装备故障风险程度的定量化描述及装备健康状态的分类。通过实验分析,本文提出的模型相比于传统的故障预测以及故障风险程度定量方法具有显著优势,实现了对装备从设计生产、部署使用以及退役报废全寿命周期的动态反馈,对提高复杂装备综合保障能力具有重要意义。     

基于融资约束的投资时机与债务规模

研究了融资约束模式下的中小企业投资时机和融资规模。利用风险中性定价方法给出了公司债券、股权、公司价值和担保成本定价的显式解；确定了投资时机与债务规模的函数关系；解释了担保换股权融资模式的优势。数值分析结果表明：投资触发水平随融资规模先减后增呈U型变化；被担保的公司价值大于股权融资的公司价值。随着风险的增大，两价值之差越来越小。比较静态分析也表明，担保换股权使得公司价值增加，投资被加速。     

Swimming and bipedal bottom-running in the pig-nosed turtle Carettochelys insculpta Ramsay, 1886

The pig-nosed freshwater turtle Carettochelys insculpta Ramsay, 1886 has paddle-shaped foreflippers that resemble those of sea turtles. These turtles exhibit a wide range of swimming capabilities. As well as swimming by the action of synchronized foreflippers alone, they sometimes used alternate hindlimb action at the same time. They could swim by ipsilaterally synchronized action of all four limbs, or by hindlimb action alone (combined with stabilizer/lift function of the foreflippers). The turtles also showed flexibility in bottom-walking. Besides the ipsilaterally synchronized quadrupedal action characteristic of other freshwater turtles, they exhibited a bipedal walking mechanism never previously described. Propelled by alternate action of the hindlimbs, the animals held the head and plastron above the substratum, with the large foreflippers acting to provide anterior lift and stability against roll and yaw. Because both hindlimbs were sometimes off the substratum simultaneously during bipedal locomotion, their duty factors were < 0.5, implying a bipedal run.     

基于DEA模型的最优基金投资策略研究

为慈善基金提出了最优投资策略,定义了投资回报率的度量,投资回报率分别由主成分分析以及数据包络分析模型测量得到,并根据投资回报率选择了10个最优投资的大学.根据马克维茨投资组合理论确定高校投资额,用目标院校近5年投资回报率的平均值和标准差构建了投资组合模型,资金分配的具体比例能唯一确定.根据规模报酬估计投资时间,帮助慈善基金实现利益最大化.     

基于MATLAB矩阵运算的大整数乘法设计与实现

大整数运算在信息安全、数学验证、基因工程等领域有着广泛的应用,设计有效的方案提高运算效率成为学者关注的热点。大整数乘法是大整数运算中的核心运算,对如何提高大整数乘法运算效率进行了分析总结,并利用MATLAB矩阵运算结合格子乘法等算法进行了设计与实现。实验表明通过MATLAB矩阵运算进行大整数乘法运算能有效的提高运算效率。     

游泳馆钢-木混合结构的体系选型和关键设计问题

崇明游泳馆采用钢?胶合木混合网壳结构。通过对胶合木力学特性和游泳馆结构静力的分析，计算屋面网壳结构钢和胶合木的合理应用范围。讨论了钢夹板木结构连接节点刚度对结构整体刚度的影响，并通过节点试验得到了节点的实际刚度。参考《空间网格结构技术规程》中关于网壳结构的稳定性分析和极限承载力的计算方法，考虑木材的材质缺陷和无塑性发展能力，钢?木混合网壳结构的弹塑性极限承载力安全系数建议取4.2。     

密度均匀连续分层流体的内波格林函数

考虑自由表面的影响,从理论上建立了在密度均匀的连续分层流体中脉动点源生成内波的数理模型,应用Fourier变换和围道积分,推导出点源脉动频率的平方小于Brunt-Visl频率的平方条件下含自由面的连续分层流体中脉动点源的内波格林函数,并给出了详细的解析表达式,讨论了解的性质、内波的生成机理和自由面的干扰机理及波动特征.结果表明,所提出的连续分层流体中脉动点源的内波生成格林函数具有较好的准确性.